Use your assigned readings and research to address the problem of tire slashings. Research tire slashing in a large metropolitan area that may consist of multiple jurisdictions. Search the local news

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Use your assigned readings and research to address the problem of tire slashings.

Research tire slashing in a large metropolitan area that may consist of multiple jurisdictions. Search the local news or other sources to locate these incidents. In 750-1,000 words, do the following:

  1. Write at least ten questions you would ask to determine the nature of the problem. Create questions that will help determine where and how to research the crime. (See Chapter 13 to determine relevant questions)
  2. Answer as many of these questions as you can with the information that you have researched. Also describe what you might need to do to find additional answers to the questions.
  3. Additionally, use crime theories to explain the motivation of this crime based on your research.

Be sure to cite three to five relevant scholarly sources in support of your content. Use only sources provided in resources, found in the GCU Library, or government websites.

Prepare this assignment according to the guidelines found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student Success Center. An abstract is not required.

This assignment uses a rubric. Please review the rubric prior to beginning the assignment to become familiar with the expectations for successful completion.

You are required to submit this assignment to LopesWrite. A link to the LopesWrite technical support articles is located in Course Materials if you need assistance.

Use your assigned readings and research to address the problem of tire slashings. Research tire slashing in a large metropolitan area that may consist of multiple jurisdictions. Search the local news
1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © e quency a nd P erc e nta g e The m ost b asic fo rm of d ete rm in in g fre q uen cy is u sin g co unt a nd perc en ta ge. H ow ever, i n v a ria ble s th at h ave n um ero us ca te g orie s (e .g ., a ddre sses a nd ty p es o f c a lls fo r s erv ic e), a naly sts so rt th e ca te g orie s in descen din g fre q uen cy b y h ig hest c o unt, a s th is m akes th em ea sie r to exa m in e. T able 1 3.1 s h ow s th e co unt a nd perc en ta ge o f ro bberie s b y b ea t, s o rte d in descen din g co unts . R ath er th an lis t th e b ea ts in ord er, t h is ta ble a llo w s a quic k a ssessm en t o f w hic h bea ts h ave th e m ost s tre et ro bberie s. In sit u atio ns w it h a la rg e n um ber o f v a lu es (in th e T able 1 3.1 b ea ts ), i t m ay n ot b e necessa ry to pro vid e th e en tir e lis t b ut o nly th e to p five, 1 0, o r 2 5 (e .g ., a ddre sses o r c a ll t y p es). T he re st w ould still b e in clu ded in th e ta ble to sh ow th e in cid en t to ta l in aggre g ate f o rm . T able 1 3.2 illu stra te s a lis t o f th e to p five ca lls -f o r-s erv ic e ty p es fo r a n en tir e cit y in d escen din g ord er, w it h th e re st o f th e ca ll t y p es a ggre g ate d . 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © A naly sts o fte n pla ce fre q uen cy d ata in bar o r lin e ch arts b eca use th is a llo w s th em to m ake vis u al c o m paris o ns a m ong th e ca te g orie s. F ig ure 1 3.1 is a bar c h art (a ls o ca lle d a his to gra m ) o f th e fre q uen cy o f ro bberie s p er b ea t. B ar c h arts a re ty p ic a lly u sed fo r ca te g oric a l v a ria ble s (e .g ., b ea ts a nd ty p es o f ro bberie s). B eca use th e b ar c h art is a vis u aliz a tio n and th e “fre q uen cy” c a te g ory is o bvio us, i t is n ot a lw ays n ecessa ry to a rra nge th e ca te g orie s in descen din g ord er, b ut in ord er o f th e ca te g oric a l v a ria ble (e .g ., B ea t 1 , B ea t 2 , B ea t 3 ). L in e ch arts a re u sed fo r o rd in al a nd ra tio va ria ble s (e .g ., m onth s and age) a nd are illu stra te d in the n ext s ectio n . S tra te g ic crim e a naly sts u se fre q uen cy o fte n , b ut th ey d o not u se th is sta tis tic a lo ne to u nders ta nd th e p re va le n ce o f a pro ble m fo r th e fo llo w in g re a so ns: J ust b eca use a n addre ss o r a re a has th e “m ost” in cid en ts o f a pro ble m does n ot m ea n it is th e “w ors t” a re a . M any tim es a naly sis is b ased on “re p orte d ” c rim es a nd ca lls fo r s erv ic e, s o le vels o f re p ortin g in fluen ce th e sta tis tic s. B oth “g ood” a nd “b ad” neig hborh oods ca n have lo w fre q uen cie s— th e fo rm er b eca use th ere is lit tle o r n o activ it y to re p ort, a nd th e la tte r b eca use p eo ple a re a fra id to re p ort th e a ctiv it y th at occu rs . In co m paris o ns o f u nit s th at a re d is sim ila r, f re q uen cy m ay d is to rt a pro ble m (e .g ., c o m parin g an are a of 2 00 sq uare m ile s a nd a popula tio n of 3 00,0 00 to one o f 2 0 sq uare m ile s a nd a popula tio n of 1 0,0 00). F ig ure 13.1 B ar C hart: F re q uen cy o f R obberie s b y B ea t 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © V aria ble s w it h la rg e n um bers o f c a te g orie s m ay b e d iffi cu lt to illu stra te u sin g sim ple f re q uen cy (e .g ., f re q uen cy o f c rim e a t in div id ual a ddre sses, f re q uen cy o f o ffe n ders b y a ge). T hese lo ng lis ts a re o fte n aggre g ate d in to la rg er c a te g orie s, s u ch as in div id ual a ddre sses a ggre g ate d by stre et s eg m en t o r n eig hborh ood and offe n ders ’ a ges a ggre g ate d in to m ult ip le yea rs (e .g ., 1 7 or y o unger, 1 8 to 24, 2 5 to 34, e tc .) . F re q uen cy o f a va ria ble w it h sm all v a lu es ca n be m ea nin gle ss. F or e xa m ple , c o unts o f h om ic id e fo r 4 yea rs in a sm all c o m munit y m ay b e 0 , 1 , 3 , 0 . C le a rly , t h ese very s m all n um bers d o not te ll u s m uch about w heth er th ere is a hom ic id e p ro ble m . It is im porta nt to note th at b efo re n arro w in g th e sco pe o f a pro ble m , f re q uen cy ca n be m is le a din g beca use d if fe re n t ty p es o f a ctiv it y a re re p re sen te d in th e m ore g en era l ca te g ory . A n im porta nt e xa m ple o f th is is a ggra va te d assa ult s . T here is a very im porta nt d if fe re n ce b etw een aggra va te d assa ult s b etw een in tim ate s (i.e ., d om estic v io le n ce) a nd assa ult s b etw een stra ngers o r e ven acq uain ta nces (i.e ., fi ghts a t b ars , d riv e-b y sh ootin gs). A fre q uen cy o f a ll a ggra va te d assa ult s w ill h id e th e co unts o f th ese tw o dis tin ct ty p es o f a ctiv it y a nd m ay le a d to erro neo us co nclu sio ns a bout pote n tia l r e sp onses. In clu din g perc en ta ges in fre q uen cy ta ble s a nd ch arts a llo w s a co m paris o n of c a te g orie s a nd help s to in dic a te th e p re va le n ce o f a pro ble m . T his is p artic u la rly re le va nt w hen co m parin g acro ss d if fe re n t d ata sets . F or e xa m ple , T able 1 3.3 is a co m paris o n of d ata sets f o r 2 yea rs a nd sh ow s 2 10 stre et ro bberie s in Yea r 1 and 200 in Yea r 2 . T hese co unts a ppea r s im ila r w hen co nsid erin g th em alo ne. H ow ever, i f w e lo ok a t w hat p erc en ta ge stre et ro bberie s a re o f th e to ta l f o r th e yea r, Y ea r 1 has 8 5% , a nd Yea r 2 has 5 0% . T hese p erc en ta ges a re m uch dif fe re n t, e ven th ough th e fre q uen cie s fo r Y ea rs 1 and 2 are sim ila r. T his is b eca use th e n um ber o f o vera ll r o bberie s in cre a sed fro m 247 in Yea r 1 to 400 in Y ea r 2 , m akin g stre et ro bberie s a m uch sm alle r p ortio n of a ll r o bberie s in Yea r 2 . P erc en ta ge va lu es co uld pro vid e m ea nin gfu l in fo rm atio n fo r a n assessm en t o f a re sp onse to stre et ro bberie s in th is exa m ple . T hat is , e ven th ough th e a ctu al n um ber o f s tre et ro bberie s o nly d ecre a sed by 1 0, t h e p erc en ta ge o f th e to ta l r o bberie s d ecre a sed by 3 5, sh ow in g th at s tre et ro bberie s a re m uch le ss fre q uen t in Yea r 2 th an in Yea r 1 re la tiv e to th e to ta l. L ik e fre q uen cie s, p erc en ta ges ca n als o be d ep ic te d in ch arts . T he ty p e o f c h art m ost co m monly u sed fo r th is p urp ose is a pie ch art. W hen cre a tin g pie ch arts , c rim e a naly sts ty p ic a lly in clu de n o m ore th an five to seven ca te g orie s so th at th e slic es o f th e p ie d o not beco m e to o sm all t o see a nd la bel. J ust a s w it h ta ble s, c h arts ca n be u sed to co m pare a cro ss d is trib utio ns. F ig ure 1 3.2 a nd Fig ure 1 3.3 illu stra te th e re la tiv e p erc en ta ge o f s tre et ro bbery in both yea rs a nd allo w fo r a n ea sy vis u al c o m paris o n of th e d if fe re n ces sh ow n in T able 1 3.3 . N ote th at th e fi gure ca ptio n of e a ch ch art in clu des th e to ta l n um ber o f ro bberie s (i.e ., N m ea ns n um ber o f c a ses); t h is is im porta nt b eca use it p ro vid es co nte xt f o r th e p erc en ta ge va lu es illu stra te d in th e ch art. 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © R ate In addit io n to usin g perc en ta ge, c o m putin g a ra te is a ls o an im pro vem en t o ver f re q uen cy to unders ta nd th e p re va le n ce o f a pro ble m . R ate s a llo w th e a naly st to co m pare fre q uen cy o f in cid en ts fo r d is sim ila r a re a s a nd lo ca tio ns. T he exa m ple g iv en fo r ra te s in th e p re vio us ch apte r u sed popula tio n as th e d en om in ato r. H ow ever, w hen an analy st is exa m in in g a pro ble m , u sin g popula tio n to co m pute a ra te m ay n ot a lw ays p ro vid e re le va nt in fo rm atio n fo r c o m paris o n. F or in sta nce, i t w ould not b e a ppro pria te to use p opula tio n to co m pare f re q uen cy o f c o m merc ia l b urg la rie s o ver s evera l a re a s b eca use p eo ple d o not liv e a t co m merc ia l b usin esses. A co m merc ia l b urg la ry ra te u sin g popula tio n w ould sh ow hig h ra te s in co m merc ia lly zo ned are a s b eca use th e p opula tio n co unts w ould be lo w . In c o ntra st, a ra te o f c o m merc ia l b urg la rie s b y n um ber o f c o m merc ia l b usin esses w ould s h ow th e re la tiv e n um ber o f b urg la rie s in dif fe re n t a re a s a cco rd in g to th e n um ber o f re le va nt ta rg ets . T able 1 3.4 d ep ic ts co m merc ia l b urg la rie s b y 1 00 ta rg ets (c o m merc ia l pla ces) p er b ea t. F ig ure 13.2 P ie C hart: P erc en ta ge o f S tre et R obbery (N = 247), Y ea r 1 F ig ure 13.3 P ie C hart: P erc en ta ge o f S tre et R obbery (N = 400), Y ea r 2 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © A naly sts co m pute ra te s fo r p ro ble m s b y u sin g th e a ppro pria te d en om in ato r, d ep en din g on th e co m paris o ns th ey w ant to m ake. H ere a re so m e exa m ple s: P er d w ellin g or a partm en t u nit (e .g ., t o co m pare th e n um ber o f re sid en tia l b urg la rie s b eca use th e ta rg e t is th e re sid en tia l u nit , n ot th e n um ber o f p eo ple liv in g in it ) P er ro om (e .g ., t o co m pare h ote ls a nd m ote ls o f d if fe re n t s iz es) P er b uild in g (e .g ., t o co m pare co m merc ia l d is tric ts b y th eir re la tiv e siz e) P er s q uare fo ot (e .g ., t o co m pare co m merc ia l b uild in gs co nta in m ult ip le fl oors o f co m merc ia l s p ace) P er o ccu pancy ra te (e .g ., t o co m pare b ars , n ig htc lu bs, o r o th er s erv ic e esta blis h m en ts , g iv en th at th e a ctu al n um ber o f p atro ns is d iffi cu lt to m ea su re ; n ote 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © t h at o ccu pancy ra te a nd sq uare fo ota ge a re co rre la te d and th us essen tia lly m ea su re th e sa m e th in g) P er p ark in g sp ace (e .g ., t o co m pare p ark in g lo ts , g iv en th at th e n um ber o f s p aces in a lo t d ete rm in es h ow m any ca rs it c a n hold ) P er a cre (e .g ., t o co m pare p ark s o r o th er la nd m asses) P er b uild in g perm it (e .g ., t o co m pare n um ber o f b urg la rie s a t c o nstru ctio n sit e s b y how m any h ouses a re u nder c o nstru ctio n) H ow ever, u sin g su ch alt e rn ativ es to dete rm in e ra te s d oes n ot a lw ays so lv e th e co m paris o n pro ble m . F or e xa m ple , u sin g park in g spaces to dete rm in e th e re la tiv e siz e o f a park in g lo t does n ot a cco unt f o r h ow m any sp aces in th e p ark in g lo t a re a ctu ally u sed or h ow m uch tim e ea ch ca r s p en ds in th e lo t. Ot her in fo rm atio n, s u ch as th e le n gth of tim e p er d ay th e park in g lo t is o pen and th e a m ount o f tim e th at c a rs ty p ic a lly sp en d in th e p ark in g lo t, a ls o w ould be u sefu l f o r c o m paris o n purp oses. H ow ever, s o m e kin ds o f in fo rm atio n ca n be diffi cu lt to obta in and update re g ula rly , s o analy sts m ay h ave to re ly o n th e m ost re le va nt and accessib le in fo rm atio n fo r th e p ro ble m at h and. W hen co m munic a tin g th eir re su lt s , th ey sh ould be cle a r a bout w hat is b ein g used fo r c o m paris o n. Case S tu dy, C hula V is ta , C alif o rn ia : I n a stu dy o f th eft f ro m ve hic le in C hula V is ta , r e searc hers and analy s ts fo und th e fo llo w in g: “ O ur R is k R ate S ubcom mit te e m ade som e in te re stin g findin gs. T he ta rg et lo ts w it h th e hig hest v o lu m e of th efts w ere not n ecessarily th ose w it h th e hig hest ris k ra te . O ne of o ur ta rg et lo ts , t h e S w ap M eet, o pen only 2 days a w eek, e xp erie nced 42 auto th efts in 2001 and tw o auto burg la rie s. W e suspecte d th at th e S w ap M eet w ould have th e hig hest lo t ris k ra te . T his t u rn ed out to be untru e, a s som e of th e sm alle r lo ts , o pen 7 days a w eek, e ve n w it h lo w er v o lu m es of th eft w ere m uch ris kie r. W hen th e S ubcom mit te e to ok in to account th e vo lu m e of c ars ente rin g and exit in g th ese lo ts , t h e num ber o f p ark in g spaces in th ese lo ts , t h e ave ra ge le ngth of tim e park ed fo r th ese lo ts , a nd th e num ber o f d ays th ese lo ts w ere open to park in g, t h ey fo und th at C hula V is ta ’s t ro lle y c om mute r lo ts had ris k ra te s of u p to te n tim es hig her th an th e ave ra ge of th e oth er lo ts c om bin ed. P erh aps w e should not h ave been so surp ris ed as th e tro lle y lo ts (a m ongst a ll t h e ta rg et lo ts ) h ad th e m ost f a vo ra ble condit io ns fo r a uto th eft (a w id e ra nge of o ld er v e hic le s, n o re gula r securit y p atro ls , u nfe tte re d access, m ult ip le exit s , v e hic le ow ners park ed fo r v e ry lo ng perio ds of tim e, and pro xim it y to th e fre ew ay— tw o m in ute s or le ss by c ar) .” (S am pson, 2 004, p . 1 3) In th e sca nnin g and analy sis ste p s, c rim e a naly sts u se th re e ra te s re g ula rly to co m pare lo ca l c rim e p ro ble m s w it h natio nal c rim e p ro ble m s, a s w ell a s to describ e p artic u la r gen era l p ro ble m s: c rim e ra te , c le ara nce ra te , a nd re co ve ry ra te . A crim e ra te is ty p ic a lly t h e n um ber o f re p orte d crim es in an are a div id ed by th e n um ber o f p eo ple liv in g in th e are a . N atio nal a nd sta te crim e ra te s a re ty p ic a lly re p orte d as th e n um ber o f P art I c rim es p er 1 00,0 00 pers o ns (n um ber o f c rim es d iv id ed by p opula tio n and th e re su lt m ult ip lie d by 100,0 00). A t th e lo ca l le vel, h ow ever, r e p ortin g crim e ra te b y 1 00,0 00 pers o ns m ay n ot b e appro pria te , e sp ecia lly in co m munit ie s w it h popula tio ns sm alle r th an 100,0 00 (i.e ., r e p ortin g crim e ra te p er 1 00,0 00 w ould giv e th e im pre ssio n th at m ore crim es a re o ccu rrin g th an actu ally a re ). If a to w n of 5 0,0 00 re sid en ts h as 3 ,0 00 P art I c rim es, t h is co m pute s to a P art I c rim e ra te o f 6 ,0 00 crim es p er 1 00,0 00 pers o ns. A lt h ough it is im porta nt th at analy sts u se “p er 1 00,0 00” ra te s w hen co m parin g crim e le ve ls in th eir ju ris d ic tio ns w it h n atio nal o r s ta te le vels , t h ose w ork in g in sm alle r ju ris d ic tio ns ca n exa m in e ra te s p er 1 0,0 00 or 1 ,0 00 pers o ns, d ep en din g on w hic h is m ore re le va nt f o r c o m parin g crim e ra te s o f s m alle r a re a s w it h in a partic u la r ju ris d ic tio n (e .g ., c en su s tra cts , b ea ts , p re cin cts ). A noth er is su e th at c rim e a naly sts n eed to co nsid er w hen usin g crim e ra te s a t th e lo ca l le vel is th e d is tin ctio n betw een pro perty crim e a nd pers o ns crim e. M ost p eo ple th in k th at vio le n t c rim e is m ore co m mon th an pro perty crim e, e ven th ough th e re vers e is tru e. F or exa m ple , i n 2014 la w en fo rc em en t a gen cie s a cro ss th e U nit e d S ta te s re p orte d a to ta l o f 1,1 65,3 83 vio le n t c rim es to th e F B I; i n th e sa m e yea r, t h ey re p orte d 8,2 77,8 29 pro perty c rim es (F B I, 2 016), a bout a 1:7 ra tio . C rim e a naly sts n eed to be ca re fu l t o sep ara te th e tw o ty p es o f c rim e in to tw o dif fe re n t ra te s to avo id m is in te rp re ta tio n. A noth er ra te o fte n used in pro ble m analy sis is th e cle a ra nce ra te . T he U nif o rm Crim e Rep ort p ro gra m ackn ow le d ges tw o w ays in w hic h crim es a re cle a re d : ( a ) b y a rre st a nd (b ) by excep tio nal m ea ns. A crim e is cle a re d by a rre st if a t le a st o ne p ers o n is a rre ste d fo r th e crim e, c h arg ed w it h th e co m mis sio n of th e crim e, a nd tu rn ed over to th e co urt f o r pro secu tio n. T he U CR co unts th e n um ber o f c rim es cle a re d , n ot th e n um ber o f in div id uals a rre ste d ; t h e a rre st o f o ne in div id ual m ay cle a r s evera l c rim es, a nd th e a rre st o f m any in div id uals m ay cle a r o nly o ne crim e. A crim e is cle a re d by excep tio nal m ea ns if c ir c u m sta nces b eyo nd polic e co ntro l p re ven t th e cle a rin g of th e crim e b y a rre st. F or th e U CR pro gra m to co unt a crim e a s cle a re d by excep tio nal m ea ns, t h e p olic e a gen cy m ust h ave th e fo llo w in g: k n ow le d ge o f th e o ffe n der’s id en tit y ; e n ough evid en ce to su pport a rre stin g, c h arg in g, a nd tu rn in g over th e o ffe n der to th e co urt f o r p ro secu tio n; a nd kn ow le d ge o f th e o ffe n der’s exa ct lo ca tio n so th at la w en fo rc em en t c a n m ake a n arre st (F B I, 2 016). E xa m ple s o f e xcep tio nal c le a ra nce in clu de d ea th of th e o ffe n der, v ic tim ’s r e fu sa l t o pro secu te , a nd den ia l o f e xtra dit io n. C le a ra nce ra te s a re ty p ic a lly re p orte d as p erc en ta ges. F or e xa m ple , i f 2 00 ro bberie s w ere re p orte d in th e p ast y ea r a nd 90 of th em were cle a re d , t h e cle a ra nce ra te w ould be 4 5 per 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © 1 00 ro bberie s, o r 4 5% (in ste a d of .4 5). A s w it h natio nal c rim e ra te s, n atio nal c le a ra nce ra te s a re b ased on P art I c rim es o nly . W hen analy zin g pro ble m s, c rim e a naly sts u se cle a ra nce ra te s to dete rm in e th e n um bers o f c rim es fo r w hic h arre sts h ave b een m ade a nd to co m pare lo ca l t o natio nal r a te s (e .g ., t o see if th e lo ca l c le a ra nce ra te is lo w er th an th e natio nal r a te ). F in ally , t h e th ir d ra te ty p ic a lly u sed in pro ble m analy sis is re co very ra te , w hic h is th e perc en ta ge o f v eh ic le s th at h ave b een sto le n in a ju ris d ic tio n and su bseq uen tly re co vere d (i.e ., f o und) a nyw here . It is a ls o re p orte d as a perc en ta ge. A naly sts u se th is ra te to help u nders ta nd th e n atu re o f a n auto th eft p ro ble m . F or in sta nce, i f th e re co very ra te in a cit y is 9 0% (i.e ., 9 out o f 1 0 sto le n ca rs a re la te r f o und), i t is cle a r th at th e cit y ’s a uto th eft p ro ble m does n ot p rim arily in vo lv e o ffe n ders w ho dis m antle ca rs fo r re sa le o f p arts o r exp ort th em out o f th e co untry . M ean and S ta ndard D evia tio n Lastly , a s n ote d in C hapte r 1 2 , m ea n and sta ndard devia tio n are n ot h elp fu l t o describ e dis trib utio ns o f d ata beca use crim e a naly sis d ata te n d to have sig nifi ca nt o utlie rs . H ow ever, t h ese sta tis tic s a re very h elp fu l in pro vid in g yet a noth er w ay to co m pare a re a s, lo ca tio ns, a nd oth er a sp ects o f a pro ble m to dete rm in e h ow wid esp re a d or f o cu sed a pro ble m mig ht b e. B eca use m ea n and sta ndard devia tio n help estim ate th e cen tra l te n den cy o f th e va lu es, t h ey ca n be u sed to dete rm in e w heth er a partic u la r c o unt o r ra te is n orm al o r u nusu al. F or e xa m ple , i f a crim e a naly st is exa m in in g a pro ble m of th efts fro m veh ic le s a t re ta il e sta blis h m en ts , t h e a naly s t m ig ht c o m pute th e ra te fo r th e n um ber o f th efts p er p ark in g sp ace fo r e a ch re ta il lo ca tio n in th e cit y . W hen th ese lo ca tio ns a re so rte d in descen din g ord er, t h e lo ca tio n w it h th e h ig hest ra te is a t th e to p. H ow ever, i s th e ra te o f crim e a t th is lo ca tio n pro ble m atic o r th at m uch dif fe re n t f ro m th e o th ers ? M ea n and sta ndard devia tio n help to dete rm in e th is . T able 1 3.5 s h ow s a lis t o f 1 0 su ch lo ca tio ns lo okin g at d ata fo r 1 2 m onth s. T he R eta il P la za 1 has th e h ig hest ra te o f th eft, b ut if th e m ea n and sta ndard devia tio n fo r th e en tir e c it y (n ot a ll lo ca tio ns a re sh ow n fo r s im plic it y ) a re 2 .6 7 and 0.8 6, r e sp ectiv ely , w e see th at R eta il P la za 1 is w it h in 1 sta ndard devia tio n of th e m ea n (2 .6 7 +.8 6 = 3.5 3), w hic h in dic a te s th e to p lo ca tio n is n ot th at m uch dif fe re n t th an th e o th er lo ca tio ns. 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © T able 1 3.6 s h ow s a dif fe re n t e xa m ple co m parin g assa ult s p er 1 00 pers o ns (i.e ., o ccu pancy o f th e b ar) a t th e to p five b ars o ver 1 2 m onth s. If th e m ea n of a l l 1 00 bars in t h e cit y is 9 .2 3 and th e sta ndard devia tio n is 4 .0 1, 3 sta ndard devia tio ns (4 .0 1 × 3 = 12.0 3) fro m th e m ea n is a va lu e o f 2 1.2 6 assa ult s p er p ers o n (1 2.0 3 + 9.2 3). W it h va lu es o f 25.3 0, 2 5.2 3, a nd 24.0 2, r e sp ectiv ely , t h e to p th re e b ars h ave co nsid era bly m ore a ssa ult s th an are ty p ic a l in all t h e b ars in th e cit y a nd in dic a te th at th e a ssa ult p ro ble m and th e ta ilo re d re sp onse m ig ht b e fo cu sed on th ese th re e lo ca tio ns. L ik e fre q uen cy a nd perc en ta ge, i t c a n be h elp fu l f o r th e a naly st to illu stra te th e re su lt s o f m ea n and sta ndard devia tio n in a ch art. F ig ure 1 3.4 s h ow s th e ra te s o f a ssa ult f o r th e fi ve b ars fro m Table 1 3.5 a lo ng w it h lin es th at re p re sen t th e m ea n and firs t, s eco nd, a nd th ir d s ta ndard devia tio ns a bove th e m ea n. T hose b elo w th e m ea n are n ot s h ow n sin ce o ur purp ose is to id en tif y b ars w it h th e h ig hest ra te s. T he ch art illu stra te s th e re su lt s a nd m akes it e a sy to dete rm in e w hic h bars a re sig nifi ca ntly h ig her th an th e o vera ll m ea n. N ote th at th is is ju st a sim ple exa m ple , a nd m ore lo ca tio ns ca n be in clu ded on su ch a ch art. F ig ure 13.4 R ate s o f A ssa ult s p er 1 00 P ers o ns a t B ars , M ea n and S ta ndard D evia tio ns 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © I t is im porta nt to note th at m ea n and sta ndard devia tio n are le ss re lia ble a nd not a lw ays n ecessa ry w hen w ork in g w it h data sets w it h fe w er th an 10 ca ses b eca use o ne o r tw o unusu al c a ses ca n sig nifi ca ntly in fluen ce th e sta tis tic s. H ow ever, t h is is n ot a hard and fa st ru le , a nd th e re su lt s o f th ese a naly ses sh ould be clo sely scru tin iz ed w hen w ork in g w it h sm all n um bers o f c a ses. Case S tu dy, C hula V is ta , C alif o rn ia : M edia n can als o be used to dete rm in e th e dif fe re nce of o ne lo catio n fro m th e oth ers because it in dic ate s th at 5 0% of th e lo catio ns are above and belo w a partic ula r v a lu e. F ig ure 13.5 is fro m a pro ble m analy s is of b udget m ote ls in C hula V is ta in w hic h th e hote ls are show n by th eir c alls fo r s erv ic e per ro om (ra te ) in com paris on to th e m edia n fo r a ll t h e hote ls . T he re port s ta te s, “ T he pro ble m analy s is conducte d up to th is poin t in th e pro je ct w as ve ry h elp fu l in id entif y in g basic pro ble m s th at n eeded atte ntio n at th e m ote ls (s uch as ro om securit y ) a nd fa cto rs associa te d w it h hig h C FS (re ntin g to lo cal a nd lo ng-te rm guests ), b ut th ese analy tic al fi ndin gs did not f u lly e xp la in th e extre m e va ria tio n in C FS per ro om ra tio s fo und at C hula V is ta m ote ls (f ro m a hig h of 2 .7 7 C FS per ro om to a lo w of 0 .1 1 C FS per ro om . . . . W hile m any m ote ls th at c ate re d to a lo cal clie nte le had hig h C FS per ro om ra tio s, s om e did not.” (C hula V is ta (C alif o rn ia ) P olic e D epartm ent, 2 009, A ppendix I) F ig ure 13.5 C alls fo r S erv ic e p er R oom per Y ea r S ourc e: C hula V is ta (C alif o rn ia ) P olic e D ep artm en t (2 009). H as th e P ro ble m In cre ase d or D ecre ase d ? In addit io n to unders ta ndin g how fre q uen t a pro ble m is , i t is im porta nt to unders ta nd th e lo ng-t e rm tre n ds o f th e p ro ble m both befo re a nd afte r a re sp onse is im ple m en te d . T hat is , h as th e p ro ble m in cre a sed , d ecre a sed , o r s ta yed th e sa m e o ver tim e? D urin g th e sca nnin g ste p , a naly sts lo ok fo r in cre a sin g tre n ds to help prio rit iz e a nd sele ct p ro ble m s fo r f u rth er exa m in atio n. D urin g th e a ssessm en t s te p , a naly sts lo ok fo r d ecre a sin g tre n ds th at h elp to in dic a te th at re sp onses h ave w ork ed . F re q uen cie s, p erc en ta ges, r a te s, a nd avera ges ca n be co m pute d and dis p la yed acco rd in g to te m pora l v a ria ble s su ch as yea r, m onth , a nd w eek in ord er to dete rm in e w heth er th e p ro ble m has ch anged over tim e. A naly sis o f te m pora l v a ria ble s is n orm ally d is p la yed in lin e ch arts b eca use th is is a cle a r w ay to sh ow co ntin uit y a nd ch ro nolo gic a l o rd er. T he p erc en ta ge o f c h ange is a ls o used to dete rm in e w heth er a pro ble m has in cre a sed or d ecre a sed . 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © B y Y ear A yea r is th e la rg est tim e u nit u sed in stra te g ic crim e a naly sis to unders ta nd in cre a ses a nd decre a ses o f a pro ble m . M ost c rim e sta tis tic s co lle cte d on a natio nal le vel a nd by lo ca l polic e a gen cie s a re ta bula te d by yea r, a llo w in g analy sts to m ake co m paris o ns to pre vio us yea rs a nd acro ss ju ris d ic tio ns. F ig ure 1 3.6 is a n illu stra tio n of a lin e ch art s h ow in g th e fre q uen cy o f ro bbery fo r 5 yea rs . A noth er c o m paris o n by yea r m ig ht in clu de ro bbery ra te s p er p opula tio n th at a llo w co m paris o n acro ss d if fe re n t le vels (e .g ., c it y vs. n eig hborin g cit y , c it y vs. s ta te , c it y vs. co untry ). T able 1 3.7 p ro vid es th e in fo rm atio n necessa ry to m ake a ch art c o m parin g a cit y ’s ro bbery ra te p er 1 00,0 00 pers o ns to th e sta te ’s ra te . T he ta ble sh ow s th at th e cit y ’s r o bbery ra te is m uch hig her th an th e sta te ’s , e ven th ough th e a ctu al n um bers o f ro bberie s a re m uch lo w er. A lt h ough th is ta ble p ro vid es su ffi cie n t in fo rm atio n about ro bbery ra te s, d is p la yin g th e d ata in th e fo rm of a lin e g ra ph, a s in Fig ure 1 3.7 , a llo w s a re a der to m ake co m paris o ns m ore ea sily . F ig ure 13.6 L in e C hart o f N um ber o f R obberie s b y Y ea r 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © F ig ure 13.7 C hart C om parin g C it y a nd S ta te R obbery R ate s B y M onth or Q uarte r Crim e a naly sts re p ort s ta tis tic s a s w ell a s stu dy p ro ble m s b y m onth prim arily , a s d o m ost b usin esses a nd oth er o rg aniz a tio ns. A m onth is a sm all e n ough unit o f tim e to allo w th e analy sis o f v a ria tio n over a yea r, a nd at th e sa m e tim e, i t is la rg e en ough to pro duce a su ffi cie n t a m ount o f d ata to exa m in e. C rim e a naly sts a ls o stu dy sta tis tic s b y q uarte r (i.e ., a perio d of 3 m onth s) w hen th e va lu es b y m onth are to o sm all t o m ake m ea nin gfu l co nclu sio ns. A naly sts u se th e te ch niq ues d escrib ed here w hen exa m in in g data fo r b oth m onth and quarte r. F ig ure 1 3.8 illu stra te s th e n um ber o f lo ud party ca lls fo r s erv ic e a t a partm en t c o m ple xes in a cit y b y m onth fo r th e p ast 3 yea rs . N otic e th at th is fi gure co nta in s m any m ore d ata p oin ts th an th e p re vio us yea r c h arts , w hic h re su lt s in pea ks a nd va lle ys w it h in ea ch yea r. T his ty p e o f a naly sis a llo w s th e a naly st to see in cre m en ta l ( m onth ly ) c h anges in th e d ata . T he stra ig ht lin e o n th e ch art re p re sen ts th e lin ea r tre n d lin e a nd help s th e a naly st d ete r m in e th e o vera ll lin ea r tre n d of th e fre q uen cy. 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © F ig ure 13.8 C hart o f L oud P arty C alls a t A partm en t C om ple xes, 3 Yea rs T re n d lin es a re u sed to help dete rm in e th e d ir e ctio n of a pro ble m when th e in cre m en ta l in cre a ses a nd decre a ses in th e d ata are n ot c le a r. T he lin ear tr e nd lin e is cre a te d by a sta tis tic a l e q uatio n (lin ea r re g re ssio n), w hic h pro duces a lin e th at b est e stim ate s th e dir e ctio n of th e m onth -t o -m onth figure s a nd is m ost o fte n used in crim e a naly sis . Ot her ty p es o f tre n d lin es a ls o ca n be p ro duced sin ce n ot a ll d is trib utio ns a re lin ea r, s u ch as exp onen tia l o r m ovin g avera ge. H ow ever, t h e a naly st s h ould be su re to unders ta nd th e sta tis tic s b eh in d th ese tre n d lin es b efo re u sin g th em . Im porta ntly , t h e d ir e ctio n of th e tre n ds in dic a te d by th e lin es ca n be d if fe re n t f o r th e sa m e p ro ble m , b ased on th e ty p e o f sta tis tic u sed in th e a naly sis (e .g ., f re q uen cy, r a te , m ea n). On e p ro ble m wit h usin g m onth s to id en tif y va ria tio ns in pro ble m activ it y is th at m onth s are n ot e q ual u nit s — th ey va ry in le n gth fro m 28 to 31 days. A 3-d ay p erio d ca n m ake a big d if fe re n ce in m onth ly co unts o f c rim e a nd oth er a ctiv it y . On e w ay in w hic h crim e a naly sts c o rre ct th is p ro ble m is b y co m putin g th e m ea n num ber o f o ccu rre n ces o f th e a ctiv it y o f in te re st p er d ay fo r e a ch m onth . S o fo r e xa m ple , i n ste a d of J anuary a nd Feb ru ary h avin g lo ud party fre q uen cie s o f 1 23 and 164, r e sp ectiv ely , t h ey h ave a vera ges o f 3 .9 7 and 5.8 6 (i.e ., 1 23 div id ed by 3 1 and 164 div id ed by 2 8) p er d ay. B y W eek Anoth er p ro ble m wit h usin g m onth as th e tim e u nit f o r a naly sis is th at m onth s va ry in th e num bers o f in div id ual w eekd ays th ey co nta in ; t h at is , o ne m onth m ay co nta in five F rid ays, a nd th e n ext m onth m ay h ave o nly fo ur. T hese va ria tio ns ca n affe ct th e co unts o f c erta in t y p es o f a ctiv it y th at a re p artic u la rly h ea vy o n w eeken ds a s o pposed to w eekd ays— lo ud partie s a t a partm en t c o m ple xes, f o r e xa m ple . A naly sts a ddre ss th is p ro ble m by co m parin g tim e p erio ds u sin g in te rv a ls o f s et n um bers o f w eeks (e .g ., 4 -w eek, 2 -w eek, o r 1 -w eek in te rv a ls ). W it h in su ch in te rv a ls , e a ch unit o f tim e h as th e sa m e n um ber o f d ays a nd th e sa m e ty p es o f d ays (e .g ., f o ur F rid ays, f o ur S atu rd ays). In co nductin g te m pora l a naly sis , crim e a naly sts ca n use lin e ch arts to dep ic t a ll o f th ese ty p es o f a naly sis , b ut th ey n eed to b e ca re fu l t o sele ct a ppro pria te tim e u nit s — th at is , u nit s th at w ill p ro vid e en ough data in e a ch unit to allo w th em to dra w su bsta ntiv e co nclu sio ns. H ow ever, o ne w arn in g is th at w eekly co unts o f c rim e a nd dis o rd er a re n ot a lw ays h elp fu l t o dete rm in e th e tre n ds o r eva lu ate a pro ble m . S even days is a very sh ort tim e fra m e a nd co unts fl uctu ate g re a tly f ro m week to w eek, e sp ecia lly w hen th e co unts a re lo w . S om eth in g as sim ple a s a hea vy ra in sto rm ca n in fluen ce th e a m ount o f a ctiv it y in a cit y d urin g one w eek, s o it is r e co m men ded to use lo nger tim e p erio ds a nd/o r c a utio n w hen exa m in in g w eekly co unts . P erc e nta g e of C hang e To answ er th is q uestio n, t h e p erc e nta ge of c h ange c a n als o be u sed to exa m in e th e am ount o f re la tiv e in cre a se o r d ecre a se in a pro ble m betw een tw o tim e p erio ds. T his ca n be p artic u la rly h elp fu l in th e a ssessm en t s te p w hen exa m in in g th e le vel o f a pro ble m b efo re a nd afte r a re sp onse. T he p erc en ta ge o f c h ange exp re sses th e a m ount o f c h ange as a pro portio n of th e va lu e a t th e fi rs t tim e p erio d (T im e 1 ), o r th e d if fe re n ce b etw een a m ea su re m en t a t T im e 1 and a m ea su re m en t a t T im e 2 , d iv id ed by th e m ea su re m en t a t 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © T im e 1 , a nd th en m ult ip lie d by 1 00 (to arriv e a t a perc en ta ge). T he fo rm ula fo r a rriv in g at th e p erc en ta ge o f c h ange is a s fo llo w s: T im e 2−Tim e 1Tim e 1×100 =% of ch ange For e xa m ple , f ro m July to D ecem ber 2 016 (b efo re th e re sp onse), 3 20 co m merc ia l burg la rie s w ere co m mit te d in a partic u la r b usin ess d is tric t in S m allt o w n, a nd fro m July to D ecem ber 2 017 (a fte r th e re sp o nse th at to ok p la ce fro m January to June 2 016), 2 56 burg la rie s w ere co m mit te d . T he p erc en ta ge o f c h ange o f b urg la rie s in th is a re a is c o m pute d as fo llo w s: 2 56 (T im e 2)−320 (T im e 1)320 (T im e 1)×100 ,or −64 320 ×100 =20 % of ch ange T he b usin ess d is tric t e xp erie n ced a 20% decre a se in burg la rie s in th e 6 m onth s a fte r th e re sp onse w as im ple m en te d . T he p erc en ta ge o f c h ange ca n als o be u sed m ore g en era lly in t h e sca nnin g pro cess fo r y ea rly , q uarte rly , o r m onth ly co m paris o ns. T able 1 3.8 c o nta in s data on th e ch ange in fre q uen cy a nd th e p erc en ta ge o f c h ange o f s tra nger ra pes b y b ea t fo r 2 016 and 2017. It s h ow s th at e ven th ough th e o vera ll n um ber o f ra pes h as in cre a sed b y 7 0% , t h e n um bers w it h in in div id ual b ea ts h ave fl uctu ate d dif fe re n tly a nd th at B ea t 6 h as h ad th e m ost s ig nifi ca nt in cre a se. 1306330 – S A GE P ublic a tio ns © T here a re so m e co nsid era tio ns to re m em ber w hen co m putin g perc en ta ge o f c h ange. N ote th at T able 1 3.8 s h ow s n o stra nger ra pes in B ea t 5 in 2016, 1 2 in 2017, a nd N C ( f o r “ n ot ca lc u la ble ”) in th e la st c o lu m n in ste a d of a perc en ta ge o f c h ange va lu e. T his is b eca use it is a m ath em atic a l r u le th at a num ber c a nnot b e d iv id ed by zero ; t h

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